Tong’s thesis investigates how China’s long-term care insurance (LTCI) system has developed amid rapid population ageing and evolving central–local government dynamics. Using policy diffusion theory and a central–local government relations perspective, it traces the institutional trajectory of the LTCI pilots launched in 2016 and their nationwide expansion from 2020. Through comparative analysis of financing mechanisms, benefit design, disability assessment, and public–private partnerships, the research highlights a gradual shift from decentralised local experimentation towards emerging national standardisation, alongside persistent challenges such as regional inequality and fiscal pressure. To assess long-term fiscal sustainability, the thesis applies GM (1,1) grey forecasting and cell-based projection models, demonstrating how LTCI viability depends on local fiscal capacity, subsidy design, and central–local redistribution. Overall, the research contributes a systematic mapping of institutional evolution and evidence-based policy strategies to strengthen the long-term equity, efficiency, and financial resilience of China’s LTCI system.
Click here to visit Tong’s homepage at the University of Birmingham.
Research interests
- Long-term care insurance
- Ageing issues
- Social policy
Publications
Ren, T. and Li, X. (2018). Analysis of the Impact of Delaying Retirement Policy on Pension Gap Rate. Modern Business, (12), pp.164–165. doi:10.14097/j.cnki.5392/2018.12.083 [In Chinese]. https://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CJFD&dbname=CJFDLAST2018&filename=XDBY201812087&uniplatform=NZKPT&v=EMMUPhvhJWydOC7mUmgNK8j9b19ZpfQHWq_q_C2uBexei2GG-8aovvjSSu6f51Q3
Ren, T. and Li, X. (2020). Research on the Cash Payment Model in the Reform of Long-Term Care System. Labour Security World, (09), pp.58–59. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-7243.2020.27.027 [In Chinese]. https://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/periodical/ChlQZXJpb2RpY2FsQ0hJTmV3UzIwMjIwNzE5Eg9sZGJ6c2oyMDIwMjcwMjcaCHVqd3M4ZWVu