From Crisis to Chronic Shortage: the future of adult social care workforce recruitment in the UK
This Working Paper was written by Dr Meherunissa Hamid and Professor Shereen Hussein, and is summarised by Meherunissa below.
The adult social care sector in the UK is facing a workforce crisis. With 111,000 unfilled roles and an ageing population, the sector has a high demand for its services and is struggling to recruit and retain staff to meet these needs. This working paper, produced by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine as part of the Centre for Care, explores how changes to immigration policy, particularly since Brexit, have shaped the sector’s ability to bring in workers from overseas, and what this means for the future of care in the UK.
The social care workforce has relied heavily on migrant workers, first from the European Union (EU) countries and more recently from non-EU countries. When free movement with the EU ended in 2020, providers turned increasingly to the Health and Care visa to fill gaps, bringing in many international recruits. While this has helped reduce vacancies in the short term, the 2025 Immigration White Paper has now closed this route for care and senior care worker roles, removing a critical staffing pipeline at a time when demand continues to grow.
This working paper examines the real-world pressures this creates for the sector and the care providers, particularly smaller organisations, who must navigate complex and ever-changing immigration rules while continuing to deliver safe, high-quality care. Many providers are already stretched, and the administrative burden of sponsoring overseas workers falls hardest on those with the least capacity to manage it.
The sector is caught between tightening immigration controls and a domestic workforce that is insufficient to fill the gap. The authors argue that restricting visa routes alone will not solve the problem. Without meaningful pay, funding, and working conditions, the sector faces deepening instability, and the people who depend on care services will feel the consequences.
